Manchester City would effectively write off an entire Premier League campaign if they are found guilty of their 115 alleged breaches of Premier League financial rules.
Relegation from the top flight would make an example out of Pep Guardiola’s men, though any talk of the English Football League being unwilling to accept the reigning Premier League champions, appears unlikely given the league’s rulebook.
Football finance expert Kieran Maguire believes a huge points deduction is the most likely punishment that would be imposed on City, potentially six times the size of Everton’s punishment for breaching profitability and sustainability rules.
Speaking on episode four of the Football on Trial: The Manchester City Charges podcast from BBC Radio 5 Live, Maguire said: “A points deduction would be the most likely outcome should the club be found guilty.
“As for the quantum of points deduction, if Everton were initially given a 10 points deduction for going around about £10/12 million over the limits in one particular season, I think, in order to set an example to the rest of football, it’s got to act as a deterrent.
“We’ll probably be looking at somewhere in the region of 60 to 100 points, which would effectively guarantee relegation out of the Premier League and into the lower tiers of football in the EFL.”
Maguire also acknowledged that it appears City would have to be accepted by the EFL. “There has been a suggestion that the EFL might refuse to accept Manchester City in terms of its competition, but looking at their rulebook, I don’t think that is feasible,” he clarified.
However, David Ornstein told NBC Sports before City’s defeat to Liverpool, the club believe their maximum punishment would be a fine amid their confidence in being exonerated and proven innocent, but what do our ChronicleLive writers think?
Matty Hewitt
Man City’s ongoing legal battle has rumbled on all season and we’re still in the dark regarding a verdict and potential punishments. Pep Guardiola admitted he expected a decision from the independent panel this month, but it’s still very quiet.
The reigning champions spent almost £200million in the January transfer market, which raised plenty of eyebrows. Do they think they’ve won the battle?
City have already come out on top in a battle regarding associated party transactions and have repeatedly pleaded their innocence. If they are found guilty, a points deduction which effectively results in relegation should be the bare minimum in my opinion.
The aforementioned Everton points deduction has set the precedent for breaches of financial rules.
Lee Ryder
The Man City charges has actually been a cloud above the whole of the Premier League season and it has clearly had some strain on Man City as a club.
In some aspects as a Newcastle follower, I have some sympathy with Man City given they are on a similar journey to us – not least after recent revelations on APT.
The Citizens have been aggressive and on the front-foot when it comes to their responses via their legal team and they have shone a light on the APT rules with moves that have actually helped Newcastle to an extent. Those APT rules have shown that there is seemingly a fear factor when it comes to clubs who have financial power and that there is a determination out there for smaller forces to try to cut a club like City down to size.
I’d like to have a good clear view at the severity of all the charges before making rash judgements, but I think that the punishments won’t be as heavy as 60 to 100 points despite the financial experts out there coming to such a conclusion. I think if City are guilty they will get a penalty deduction but I think the Premier League may also issue a suspended punishment too.
As things stand if the Premier League punish City as heavily as relegation they are setting a dangerous precedent and I think they’d come back twice as strong whatever penalties are dished out.
Ciaran Kelly
It’s pretty much impossible to try and predict this case. Literally anything could happen.
However, although Manchester City’s recent APT challenge is a very separate matter, it was striking that the champions triumphed in their first legal battle with the Premier League after the original sponsorship rules were declared ‘void and unenforceable’. This is a very different case, of course, but it proved Manchester City can put together an almighty legal case and pick some big holes in the top-flight’s framework.
This is really hard to call but I think, one way or the other, Manchester City will still be playing in the Premier League next season. For me, if Manchester City are found guilty of some of the charges, transfer bans and points deductions are the only suitable punishments, but don’t bet against a lengthy appeal and further legal challenges if that happens. This one will rumble on a while yet.
Aaron Stokes
It’s the case that will send shockwaves through the Premier League – whatever the outcome. It’s a perplexing situation, the like of which the top flight have never seen.
Does Manchester City’s APT win offer a glimpse of what is to come with their separate battle against the Premier League? If you’re a fan of the champions, you must be confident. Meanwhile, Pep Guardiola’s side blew their rivals out of the water with their January spending – which they may have thought twice about if a substantial fine was coming down the tracks.
To add, City have had the best lawyers in the land fighting their corner in recent months – and that puts them in a very strong position to escape major punishment – such as a relegation or dramatic points deduction.
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