When predicting the Grammy Award winners, there’s one thing you have to remember: there’s common logic, and then there’s Grammys logic. Sometimes those two align, but more often, they don’t.
And because of this, obvious conflicts arise, leading to an air of disappointment surrounding the awards show. The Grammys—which will broadcast live from Los Angeles’ Crypto.com Arena this Sunday at 8 PM Eastern Standard Time on CBS and Paramount+—have long been criticized for failing to properly recognize the contributions of Black artists, particularly those who are the most experimental.
The members of the Recording Academy are a vast network of music professionals—artists, songwriters, producers, and record executives—and they have their own biases. These biases often lean toward honoring music that’s more traditional or, at the very least, music that fits into a conversation with the broader musical canon, rather than what’s at the forefront of popular culture.
This is especially evident when it comes to the rap categories, which are often not even aired during the broadcast. Last year, Killer Mike swept the rap Grammys. And honestly, those wins were deserved (MICHAEL was one of the best albums of 2023). But there was pushback from younger fans who were vouching more for a figure like Travis Scott, who has a history of experimenting with new sounds.
This year, the main narrative within rap is how well Kendrick Lamar will do. Kendrick is a Grammy darling, and this year he’s nominated for seven awards, mostly for “Not Like Us,” which, while a smash, is one of the most controversial songs in recent memory. How will the Grammy voters respond to this dichotomy?
Outside of rap, the main narrative of the show centers around Beyoncé, who has yet to win the Best Album Grammy. She’s been campaigning for it since last year, when Jay-Z made an impassioned speech about the matter and Beyoncé showed up to the awards wearing a cowboy hat.
So what’s going to happen this Sunday? We tried to figure it out. Below, we divide our predictions into two categories: who will win and who should win.
Check out the Complex Music’s predictions for the 67th Annual Grammy Awards below.
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Nominees: Might Delete Later (J. Cole), The Auditorium, Vol. 1 (Common and Pete Rock), Alligator Bites Never Heal (Doechii), The Death of Slim Shady (Coup De Grâce) (Eminem), We Don’t Trust You (Future and Metro Boomin)
Who Should Win: We Don’t Trust You — Future and Metro Boomin
Last year marked a return to form for Future, who dropped some of the best music of his career. At the top of the list is We Don’t Trust You, his first of two collaborative albums with Metro Boomin. While “Like That” dominated the coverage, the whole album is dope. Crucially, it checks a lot of the boxes for what the Grammys typically look to award: it sounds expensive, has some forward-thinking elements, but, most importantly, is rooted in enough tradition—in this case, ’90s hip-hop—to catch the attention of a typical Grammy voter. — Dimas Sanfiorenzo
Who Will Win: The Death of Slim Shady (Coup De Grâce) — Eminem
Fun fact: Eminem has won the Grammy for Best Rap Album six times. The only time he didn’t win was in 2006 when his Encore album lost out to Ye’s Late Registration. So, when Em gets nominated in this category, he tends to win. He’s earned Grammy respect, and I suspect he’ll be rewarded again. Plus, The Death of Slim Shady (Coup De Grâce) is one of the more commercially successful albums represented here, which definitely helps voters who aren’t super tapped into rap. —Dimas Sanfiorenzo
Nominees: “Asteroids” (Rapsody Feat. Hit-Boy), “Carnival” (Kanye West and Ty Dolla $ign Feat. Rich The Kid and Playboi Carti), “Like That” (Future and Metro Boomin featuring Kendrick Lamar), “Not Like Us” (Kendrick Lamar), “Yeah Glo!” (GloRilla),
Who Should Win: “Not Like Us” — Kendrick Lamar
If the Recording Academy really wanted to make a statement regarding Kendrick’s impact on rap in 2024, it would have been wild to see him earn all five nods in the Best Rap Song category. A bit much, yes, but there’s an argument that “Like That,” “Not Like Us,” “Euphoria,” “tv off,” and “Squabble Up” are all worthy of a nomination. That’s just how dominant Kendrick was in 2024. No one deserves the Best Rap Song honor more. —Will Schube
Who Will Win: “Not Like Us” — Kendrick Lamar
Not only did Kendrick dominate the rap landscape in 2024—thanks to his swift and ferocious defeat of Drake in their battle—but he came away from it with a genuine chart-topper that did so well it led Drake to sue the record label they share because the numbers were that staggering. The Recording Academy functions by way of some alchemic formula that weighs cultural notoriety with commercial success, and “Not Like Us” achieved both better than any rap song this year. —Will Schube
Nominees: “Enough (Miami)” (Cardi B), “When The Sun Shines Again” (Common and Pete Rock Feat. Posdnuos), “Nissan Altima” (Doechii), “Houdini” (Eminem), “Like That” (Future and Metro Boomin Feat. Kendrick Lamar), “Yeah Glo!” (GloRilla), “Not Like Us” (Kendrick Lamar)
Who Should Win: “Nissan Altima” — Doechii
I can’t deny the impact and success of “Not Like Us.” But this is an award about “performance.” And Doechii really puts on a clinic in the core elements of rap performance with “Nissan Altima.” That’s why she deserves to win this category over the all-encompassing diss track. From the way she contorts her voice to the different flows she uses and how clearly she enunciates every word in her verses, the track feels like a lyrical exercise for Doechii. It perfectly embodies what a standout “rap performance” is all about. —Jordan Rose
Who Will Win: “Not Like Us” — Kendrick Lamar
“Not Like Us” dominated pop culture the moment it came out, so it would make sense if the song swept every rap category it was nominated for. (Eminem agrees with me!) So I expect another big win for Kendrick here. — Jordan Rose
Nominees: “Kehlani” (Jordan Adetunji Feat. Kehlani), “Spaghettii” (Beyoncé Feat. Linda Martell and Shaboozey), “We Still Don’t Trust You” (Future and Metro Boomin Feat. The Weeknd), “Big Mama” ( Latto) “3:AM” (Rapsody Feat. Erykah Badu)
Who Should Win: “We Still Don’t Trust You” — Future, Metro Boomin and The Weeknd
Future and Metro Boomin should be recognized for the major impact they’ve had on rap in 2024. It’s widely accepted that Kendrick will dominate most of the rap categories, but “We Still Don’t Trust You” with The Weeknd has a real shot at winning the Best Melodic Rap Performance award at the Grammys. Sometimes, the award should just go to the best song, and it’s hard to argue with anyone who considers this collaboration from Future, Metro, and Abel the best song from this category.. —Will Schube
Who Will Win: “Spaghettii” — Beyoncé Feat. Linda Martell and Shaboozey
The Grammys love to give Beyoncé awards…just not the big ones. Out of the four most prestigious categories (Song of the Year, Best New Artist, Album of the Year, and Record of the Year), Beyoncé has won only Song of the Year—back in 2010 for “Single Ladies (Put a Ring on It).” It’s comical, tragic, and downright disgraceful. But I have a feeling the Grammys will make up for some of those sins this year, and Beyoncé will be the big winner of the night. That means she’ll likely dominate in some of the smaller categories, including Best Melodic Performance.
There are definitely elements of rap, but “Spaghetti” features contemporary country star Shaboozey and legendary country singer Linda Martell. So, why exactly it’s in the Melodic Rap category is a question for another conversation. But at least Bey will finally get her flowers on Grammy night. —Will Schube
Nominees: Alissia (“Spend the Night” BJ the Chicago Kid and Coco Jones), Dernst “D’Mile” Emile II (“Die with a Smile” Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars), Ian Fitchuk (“Amen,” Beyoncé), Mustard (“Not Like Us” Kendrick Lamar), Dan Nigro (“Good Luck, Babe!” Chappell Roan)
Who Should Win: Mustard
Mustard has picked up a handful of Grammy nominations over the years, but this is his first nod for Producer of the Year. In a just world, Mustard would be the winner here. “Not Like Us” was not only the song of the year but the blueprint for a sound Kendrick would fully embrace on GNX. His journey proves that a producer who starts by defining a regional sound can evolve into a global hitmaker. —Allison Battinelli
Who Will Win: Dan Nigro
But the winner will likely be Dan Nigro, who has become Gen Z’s answer to Jack Antonoff when it comes to comprehensive yet progressive pop production. Nigro is best known for being Olivia Rodrigo’s go-to producer, helping craft SOUR and GUTS. He had a standout year, thanks to the success of Chappell Roan, who emerged as one of the year’s biggest pop figures (alongside Sabrina Carpenter). Nigro was the driving production force behind Roan’s breakout album, Chappell Roan: The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess, making him a shoo-in for the award. —Allison Battinelli
Nominees: Benson Boone, Sabrina Carpenter, Doechii, Khruangbin, Raye, Chappell Roan, Shaboozey, Teddy Swims
Who Should Win: Doechii
Doechii dropped her mixtape Alligator Bites Never Heal at the end of summer and has been working the project ever since. In that time, she’s emerged as one of the most promising newcomers in music. Thanks to her loyal fan engagement, unique visual style, and, of course, great music, Doechii’s stardom has grown organically over the past few months. It’s only up from here. And this is the type of award a talent like Doechii should win. —Jordan Rose
Who Will Win: Sabrina Carpenter
While Doechii’s music is incredible and her profile is on the rise, Sabrina Carpenter is already a pop culture juggernaut, with comparisons to Britney Spears pouring in. Historically, the Academy has favored singers in this category. In fact, since 2000, only three rap acts have won the award: Megan Thee Stallion in 2021, Chance the Rapper in 2017, and Macklemore & Ryan Lewis in 2014 (famously beating out Kendrick Lamar in the process). Expect a win from Sabrina here. —Jordan Rose
Nominees: “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” (Shaboozey), “Birds of a Feather” (Billie Eilish), “Die with a Smile” (Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars), “Fortnight” (Taylor Swift Feat. Post Malone), “Good Luck, Babe!” (Chappell Roan), “Not Like Us” – Kendrick Lamar (Kendrick Lamar), “Please Please Please” (Sabrina Carpenter), “Texas Hold ‘Em” (Beyoncé)
Who Should Win: “Not Like Us” – Kendrick Lamar
First, a quick distinction between Song of the Year and Record of the Year: Record of the Year is a collective award, recognizing the producers, artists, and engineers who bring a song to life. Song of the Year, on the other hand, is for the songwriter. This is why Kendrick’s”’Not Like Us” should be the big winner. It’s the best written song in the bunch—vicious and cruel yet also catchy and accessible. It was also effective: it’s a diss track that did real reputational damage to one of the greatest rappers of all time. —Dimas Sanfiorenzo
Who Will Win: “Die with a Smile” (Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars)
With that being said, it’s hard to imagine the Grammys showing this much love to a song that calls Drake a “pedophile.” (Even though Drake and The Academy have a complicated relationship.) “Die with a Smile” is the clear winner. It’s a more traditionally written ballad. Oh, and it’s an absolute smash. And despite the fact that this is an award about songwriting, The Academy won’t ignore that it features two of the most beloved Grammy artists of all time: Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars. —Dimas Sanfiorenzo
Nominees: “Now and Then” (The Beatles), “Texas Hold ‘Em” (Beyoncé), “Espresso” (Sabrina Carpenter), “360” (Charli XCX), “Birds of a Feather” (Billie Eilish), “Not Like Us” (Kendrick Lamar), “Good Luck, Babe!” (Chappell Roan), “Fortnight” (Taylor Swift Feat. Post Malone)
Who Should Win: “Not Like Us” – Kendrick Lamar
Kendrick Lamar took aim at the biggest name in rap with a track that leaned heavily into Dot’s identity as a diehard Angeleno. The song transcended any regional boundaries, becoming not just the most important track of the year but one of the most significant moments in 21st-century rap. So yeah, this should be Record of the Year. But the Recording Academy tends to be a few years behind the mainstream when it comes to embracing the genre, and it’s hard to see Kendrick getting the second-biggest award of the night, especially for a song that’s as aggressive as this one. Seriously, is there any precedent for a song this mean-spirited winning Record of the Year? —Will Schube
Who Will Win: “Birds of a Feather” – Billie Eilish
The Recording Academy is clearly obsessed with Billie Eilish. At just 23 years old, she’s already won nine Grammys, including awards in all four major categories. She’s a Grammy favorite, and I suspect the Academy will find another way to give her flowers. It’s not necessarily the wrong choice. “Birds of a Feather” was both a commercial success and, frankly, a great song. Eilish explores a sonic palette here that’s commercially appealing yet new for her. —Will Schube
Nominees: New Blue Sun (André 3000), Cowboy Carter (Beyoncé), Short n’ Sweet (Sabrina Carpenter), Brat (Charli XCX), Djesse Vol. 4 (Jacob Collier), Hit Me Hard and Soft (Billie Eilish), The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess (Chappell Roan), The Tortured Poets Department (Taylor Swift)
Who Should Win: Cowboy Carter – Beyoncé
One could argue that every time Beyoncé has been nominated for Album of the Year, she deserved to win. Yet, the award has repeatedly eluded her. While Cowboy Carter may not be her best album, it is undeniably high-quality. More than that, it is musically the best album of this year’s nominees (or basically neck to neck with Billie Eilish’s Hit Me Hard and Soft.) It features the widest selection of sounds and is a true testament to Beyoncé’s musical range. —Dimas Sanfiorenzo
Who Will Win: Cowboy Carter – Beyoncé
The Grammys won’t make the same mistake again; this time, Beyoncé will win her first Album of the Year Grammy. Jay-Z won’t have to make another speech on her behalf. The competition is fierce—Taylor Swift usually dominates this category, but The Tortured Poets Department has proven polarizing. While albums like Sabrina Carpenter’s Short N Sweet and Chappell Roan’s The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess are strong contenders, they still feel a little early in the game.
It’s essentially a three-album race: Hit Me Hard and Soft, Charli XCX’s Brat, and Cowboy Carter. But Cowboy Carter is the one with the strongest narrative around it. The Grammys are likely to right their past wrongs and finally honor Beyoncé’s craft. This album encapsulates her entire musical journey, and in a way, it feels like a career award—the musical equivalent of Al Pacino winning a Best Actor Oscar for Scent of a Woman. It also embodies the quintessential Grammy album: one that celebrates musicianship and offers a deep dive into a variety of genres, from country to rock to bluegrass. This time, common sense and Grammy logic align. —Dimas Sanfiorenzo
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