Here Are Our Predictions for What Kendrick Lamar Will Do at the Super Bowl Halftime Show

There’s a world where Kendrick opens with “Not Like Us.” It’s explosive. It sets the tone. All that. But because it’s the biggest song of his career, it feels more likely that he’ll save it. So then, it’s a good thing he’s still got “Squabble Up,” a bubbling, hyphy-inflected track that also hit No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart last year. With KDot’s jittery delivery and an easily repeatable hook, it would be an opening that maximizes the electricity of the moment. It would be a proper adrenaline shot to supercharge the audience while still building up to a truly indelible climax.

There’s a world where Kendrick opens with “Not Like Us.” It’s explosive. It sets the tone. All that. But because it’s the biggest song of his career, it feels more likely that he’ll save it. So then, it’s a good thing he’s still got “Squabble Up,” a bubbling, hyphy-inflected track that also hit No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart last year. With KDot’s jittery delivery and an easily repeatable hook, it would be an opening that maximizes the electricity of the moment. It would be a proper adrenaline shot to supercharge the audience while still building up to a truly indelible climax.

If you’re a betting person, you should note that in gambling markets, “Humble” is the favorite, with +115 odds. Great song, but I still think “Squabble Up” is the best value for your dollar, with odds in the +430 range.

Kendrick’s “Not Like Us” visual won the Grammy for Best Rap Video last weekend, but if the “Squabble Up” vid had been released before the cutoff, he might have been his own best competition.

Like the former, the “Squabble Up” video represents various shades of Cali culture, except this one embeds more symbolic layers to the whole affair. There are nods to Ice-T, a lowrider, a set of turf dancers and more. Expect KDot to re-create aspects of the visual for the Super Bowl audience, as it provides both an opportunity to maximize his elite choreography and keep the crowd energized. And put a spotlight on his reason, a central mission of the whole GNX album—and pretty much everything else he’s done since “Not Like Us.”

If Kendrick is going to do one thing it’s plug his little cousin, Baby Keem. Seeing as Keem hasn’t dropped in a while and was conspicuously absent from the stage at Kendrick’s Pop Out last summer, now feels like a good chance for him to re-introduce him to the world.

On a logistical level, it makes sense because we all need to see them perform “Hillbillies” together. On a more human level…when’s the next time Keem will get to perform at the Super Bowl? Doesn’t feel like Kendrick would let this opportunity slip.

TMZ has reported that Kendrick would, indeed, be performing “Not Like Us” at the Super Bowl. Honestly, like…no shit. It’s a No. 1 single. It’s arguably the track that got him his performance slot at Super Bowl LIX in the first place.

He was always going to perform the track—or at least, some version of it. (More on that a little later.) Besides sorting through the logistics of performing such a scathing diss in front of, oh I don’t know, 100 million or so people, the last question is this: When’s he going to perform it? My guess? At the end of the show. It’s a symbolic throughline for everything he’s done the last year, it’s his most anthemic hit and, just by the unwritten laws of iconic performances, it has to be last.

He’ll want to leave the audience with the most powerful last impression possible, and as evidenced by its five Grammy wins, “Not Like Us” is omnipotent.

Look: Kendrick will perform “Not Like Us.” But will he perform all of it? My bet is, “No.”

Besides the fact that artists generally jump around some of their best songs for abbreviated sets like this one, the lyrics are simply too incendiary to be uttered on a platform this large. Seriously, could you imagine a full-throated Kendrick rapping, “Certified Lover Boy? Certified pedophile” and then just going back to watch some football? Catchy as it is, it’s just too venomous for everyone to get back to regularly scheduled programming after he leaves the stage.

If you watched his Pop Out show, you already know Kung Fu Kenny gives no fucks. But this feels a little audacious even for him, and the chorus itself is so infectious it can do the heavy lifting for the performance.

I’m pretty sure Kendrick isn’t petty enough—or reckless enough—to mention Drake by name, but there’s a decent chance there will be some Anti-Drizzy Easter Eggs embedded in the show. After all, this is the guy that wore a Canadian tuxedo while accepting all of the trophies for “Not Like Us” last weekend. When he steps onto the field this Sunday, expect the performance to involve some winking shade for the crowd—and journalists like me—to decipher.

This one’s a layup. Kendrick has been all about using his music to promote Blackness in various forms, and with Louisiana being home to several universities, there’s really no reason he wouldn’t grab one of their marching bands to bring authentic live music flair to the performance. Really, tracks like “Not Like Us” and “TV Off” are begging for the college marching band treatment. Especially “TV Off.” Those live horns could mark the beginning of some seriously frenzied euphoria (pun intended). Speaking of “TV Off”…

“Not Like Us” should obviously be the climax, but—walk with me—Kendrick will have to compromise too much for it to be maximized.

However, some time after he and SZA perform a medley of “Luther,” “All the Stars,” and/or “30 for 30,” (which they almost surely will) Louisiana State University’s marching band will emerge from the tunnel, with their lead trumpeter blowing into the sky like it’s the last battle in Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. At that moment, Kendrick’s ecstatic “MUSTAAAAAAAAAAAARD!” scream will soar above the heavens—re: the top of Caesars Superdome—and the best kind of chaos will break loose. He’ll spit every bar with his chest, soul, and more than that as the crowd gets enraptured by the vibe. “Not Like Us” will technically be the finale, but “TV Off” will feel like the true climax.—Peter A. Berry

Despite a solid history of hit-making, Mustard had become pretty underappreciated in recent years. Behind the dominance of “Not Like Us,” he’s now in a rarefied class of rap producers who’ve won the Grammy for Record of the Year. So yeah. He’s a big winner from this whole Kendrick versus Drake saga—and it will now be impossible to sleep on his legacy.

Kendrick is an appreciative dude, loves LA and has had no problem giving shine to his partners, so I expect Mustard to materialize right before Kendrick invokes his name for “TV Off.” I know during an appearance with Complex, he played coy about being at the show. But, yeah, I think he was capping. Expect to see him Sunday night.

Despite SZA joining the show, Kendrick Lamar is likely to keep it light with songs from the TDE era. I don’t expect to hear “Bitch, Don’t Kill My Vibe,” “Swimming Pools (Drank),” “Alright,” or a lot of the early classics. The expectations will be “All the Stars” and a few songs from DAMN., still his biggest album.

I believe Kendrick will focus the setlist on music from the last three years. A big clue came during his conversation yesterday, where he emphasized the importance of staying present. In the interview, he said:

“I love being present, man. It’s very hard for me to live in the past. It’s very hard. I respect the past wholeheartedly, but being in the now and being locked into how I feel and the energy I have now, that’s the LA energy for me… This is me, this is Kendrick Lamar, 37 years old, and I still feel like I’m elevating. I’m still on the journey, though, you know? I want that energy to ooze out into the televisions and into the people in that building.”

It feels blasphemous, but it also doesn’t seem far off: Kendrick Lamar, one of the most innovative and creative performers of our time, could be on the verge of delivering the greatest performance any artist has ever offered on this stage. And that includes Dr. Dre’s performance, which featured Eminem, Snoop Dogg, Mary J. Blige, 50 Cent, and Kendrick himself.

That performance relied heavily on star power. The circumstances are much different now. While Kendrick is set to perform with SZA, he will likely be commanding the stage mostly on his own, free to sequence sonically similar songs from his catalog for smooth transitions.

When you combine the inherent advantages of having fewer performers, Kendrick’s choreography and storytelling, the quality of his new album, and his instincts for theatrics, there’s really no ceiling for how incredible his set could be. In the end, it could be the crowning achievement of the entire show.